HATE to sit on the fence, but it is honestly too close to call.
We may not even have an official result until next month – that’s how tight it could be.
Martin Cameron appeared the front-runner just over a month ago, but ever since the SEC announcement was made, there is an undeniable feeling that might be enough to tip the scales in Dr Kate’s favour.
With Moe, a traditional Labor stronghold, now also in the electoral boundary, you’d expect Labor to pick up a good percentage of votes there.
The Nationals are clearly desperate to win, and are pulling out all the stops to do so.
I swear they have bought every billboard from Traralgon to Moe.
The planets could be aligning for the Nats. A very favourable ballot draw that saw them score second spot on the ticket – and Liberal candidate Dale Harriman first – can’t hurt their chances.
With Cameron heavily involved in local football, I jokingly can’t help but think if he can survive football politics, state politics should be a walk in the park.
I’m still convinced there is no more political place than a football club (although I have heard bowls clubs are even more so).
Preferences will be critical in this race, and with 12 people running, it throws any number of hypotheticals in the air.
This is one of, if not the most competitive field Morwell has ever seen.
However, needing to pick a winner, I am leaning ever so slightly toward The Nats. I just feel there is enough antipathy toward Andrews down here to force a swing.
It’s only the voters now; there is very little the candidates can do.
Liam Durkin
Editor, Gippsland Times & Latrobe Valley Express
UNLIKE our esteemed editor, this reporter is willing to make a call for the electoral district of Morwell, and he believes that Martin Cameron will emerge victorious come Saturday.
Mr Cameron’s party, The Nationals, have pulled out all the stops to ensure that their candidate has been seen and heard in the past few months; they’ve outspent their competitors across the (bill)board, and even pulled out the big guns – party leader Peter Walsh, and Liberal/Coalition/Opposition leader Matthew Guy – on the campaign trail.
But it’s not just spending that puts Mr Cameron ahead; it’s also the waning influence of the union movement.
Morwell was once a Labor stronghold, with blue-collar employees in the mines and the power stations giving their vote to the party that represented the interests of the working class.
Now, with Hazelwood closed and the future of both Loy Yang and Yallourn uncertain, Labor’s base in the Valley has eroded.
While polls have Dr Kate Maxfield ahead, and the ABC counts Morwell as a nominal Labor seat with the redistribution, it seems unlikely that voters will flock to a party which is pushing for renewable energy over coal.
This view is confirmed by sources within Labor’s ranks, who are hopeful rather than confident of Dr Maxfield winning the seat.
The mixed feelings around Premier Daniel Andrews won’t be helping Labor, either – while he has gained plenty of “Dan stands” for his handling of the pandemic, he has drawn just as many detractors for his lockdowns and other health measures.
For these reasons, Martin Cameron can be assured of victory.
Tom Parry
Political junkie, Gippsland Times
IT’S certainly going to be tight, but I think Dr Kate Maxfield will bring Morwell back into Labor hands for the first time since 2006.
It’s very hard to make predictions for this election in general, as Victoria’s unique experiences with COVID lockdowns has polarised the community, some supporting the government response and others staunchly opposed.
At the federal election, the Liberals were banking on perceived anti-Dan Andrews sentiment to deliver them seats, which didn’t materialise in the way they hoped.
The state Liberals are hoping that the anti-Dan vote will matter in key seats such as Morwell, but there are other issues at play as both parties avoid talking about the pandemic.
One such issue is transport – the Coalition pledged to lower public transport fares, including halving V/Line fares, with Labor later announcing their own policy to cap V/Line fares to match Melbourne’s daily fare of $9.20.
Health is a big policy battlefield, with the Coalition pledging to dump the Suburban Rail Loop project and use the money available for the health system, including regional health. However, Labor’s traditional policy strength is health, and Kate Maxfield being a doctor herself on the frontline during the pandemic at Latrobe Regional Hospital may put her in good standing for locals.
Ultimately, what may swing this seat to Dr Maxfield is the announcement to revive the SEC, with its office to be based in Morwell. Martin Cameron told me that he believes voters may feel “disillusioned” by the SEC announcement, thus costing Labor votes, rather than winning the seat for them.
Despite this, I still think Dr Kate Maxfield will win this important seat.
Stefan Bradley
Politics reporter, Gippsland Times
