[Published in yesterday’s paper on November 25]

GIPPSLANDERS will head to the polls tomorrow as they cast their ballot in the 2022 Victorian State Election.

If voters were looking at making a change this Saturday, it’s unlikely to happen in either Gippsland South or Gippsland East.

Both are safe seats held by The Nationals with very large margins.

With the new electoral boundaries, Danny O’Brien holds Gippsland South by an estimated 14.2 per cent, and Tim Bull at an even larger 17.6 per cent in Gippsland East.

Independent Craig Ingram represented Gippsland East from 1999 to 2010, but other than that, both Gippsland East and Gippsland South have been represented by The Nationals for decades. With no ‘teal’ independent challenger, it seems likely that incumbents in both seats will be re-elected handily.

The seat of Morwell is the seat you want to live in if you are looking for an exciting contest.

Russell Northe won the seat in 2006 for The Nationals, and retained it in subsequent elections, including in 2018 when he ran as an independent.

Mr Northe is retiring from politics this year, and with a change in electoral boundaries, the seat is notionally Labor by a margin of four per cent. Pundits are predicting a two-way contest between Labor’s Dr Kate Maxfield and Nationals candidate Martin Cameron.

As for the election itself, polling and focus groups have indicated it is tightening. Polling can be wrong of course, sometimes very wrong, as many of us have observed in recent elections around the world.

Premier Daniel Andrews headed into the campaign favoured to win majority government once again, and perhaps repeat the 2018 ‘Danslide’.

Opposition leader Matt Guy has consistently been behind Mr Andrews when it comes to ‘preferred Premier’, so it may be a case of ‘ better the devil you know’.

Mr Guy’s campaign against the Premier may put him over the line, or may not, because the anti-Dan line did not work as well as the Liberals had hoped in the federal election.

It’s very hard to make predictions for this election in general, as Victoria’s unique experience with COVID lockdowns has polarised the state, with some strongly supporting the government response and others staunchly opposed. Whether you are ‘anti-Dan’ or a ‘Dan Stan’, or fall into neither of those camps, the question is whether the COVID response will be the main thing that will determine the vote. Perhaps it will be health, energy, public transport, or the big thing that ties all of those together: cost of living.

The most surprising thing that could happen on Saturday would be a straightforward result, with either Labor or the Coalition simply taking enough seats off the other to win majority government. Forty-five seats in the Legislative Assembly are needed for a majority. Labor has a large buffer with 55 seats, and the Coalition has 27 (Liberals 21, Nationals 6). Greens have three seats, and there are three independents.

Just like in the Federal Election, there seems to be many undecided voters and a dearth of support for Labor and the Coalition. Both major parties will likely lose seats in unexpected places.

Polls officially open at 8am tomorrow, and close at 6pm.

A full list of voting centres is available online at https://maps.vec.vic.gov.au/elections

For those unable to vote on Saturday or who can’t wait until then, the Early Voting Centre on Raymond St, Sale will be open today until 6pm.

The Gippsland Times will be providing live coverage on Saturday evening as the results of the 2022 State Election come through.

You can follow the coverage through our website: www.gippslandtimes.com.au