Michelle Slater
Victoria and South Australia could face energy shortfalls post-Yallourn closure unless more dispatchable capacity is built to address reliability concerns, according to the market operator.
The Australian Energy Market Operator has updated modelling of the Yallourn Power Station’s exit four years earlier than expected in 2028, along with newly-committed generation and storage projects.
It focused on supply and demand balances between 2028 and 2030 in Victoria and South Australia, the two states to be most impacted by Yallourn’s closure.
AEMO chief system design officer Alex Wonhas said modelling found there could be shortfalls in minimum reliability standards in both states, “unless there is further commitment of dispatchable capacity”.
However, AEMO pointed to more projects on the horizon to address these concerns which would “materially improve the forecast reliability outlook”.
This includes a 350 megawatt battery that EnergyAustralia has slated to be built at Jeeralang in 2026 leading up to Yallourn’s closure.
It also includes a 300 MW gas peaking plant EnergyAustralia had recently announced at Tallawarra B in New South Wales.
Dr Wonhas said that although these projects had not yet been committed under AEMO criteria, “they are very likely to proceed”.
He said investment in new generation was continuing at “significant speed” with more than 40 projects totalling 4900 MW were starting to export to the grid last year, or were completing registration.
A further 300 projects in energy and storage totalling 55,000 MWs are being proposed across the National Electricity Market.
“These new generation sources will help transition our electricity market, as two-out-of-three of today’s coal-fired generators are due to retire by 2040,” Dr Wonhas said.
Dr Wonhas said that these generation changes mirrored the “dynamic nature” of Australia’s transforming energy sector.
“Our ageing coal-fired power stations are rapidly nearing the end of their technical and economic life, while investment in renewable, battery storage and residential solar continues to increase at an unprecedented rate,” Dr Wonhas said.
“Certainty around Yallourn’s exit is welcome as it gives the market ample opportunity to prepare for a smooth transition without loss of reliability or excessive price impacts on consumers.”
